Pull down the blinds. We’re in a Transition to the Third World

by Jo Nova

Australia is too poor to use air-conditioning and dishwashers on a warm day

Welcome to Bananaustralia.

The Premier of NSW issued death threats about electricity bills to get attention:

“If you use electricity this afternoon, you’re going to get killed in terms of how much you pay, the amount of money (to run appliances) this afternoon will be through the roof,” he said.

The NSW Minister, Penny Sharpe told eight million people to avoid using the dishwashers and pool pumps between 3 and 8pm, close the doors and blinds, and turn the air conditioner up to a higher temperature. “Stay hydrated and avoid going outside in the hotter parts of the day where possible” she said, like she was talking to four year olds.

All around New South Wales and in Canberra people spent the day wandering around turning off lights and appliances, and rearranging their plans. Public servants were asked to pull the blinds and turn off appliances at work. The four water utilities, the dams, and water management, were also asked to help. And the Reliability and Emergency Reserve Trader (RERT) condition was instigated, which means some businesses were paid to stop using as much electricity. Presumably, Tomago smelter  had to go on an electron-diet — since it uses 10% of the entire state’s electricity. But who needs aluminium right?

So most of the state tried to do something useful  in the dim light, so they could pay the rest of the state to do nothing.

But it’s OK, because you could do whatever you wanted up until 3pm:

Energy should be used as normal prior to 3pm when rooftop solar panels are powering much of the state. During the peak from 3pm to 8pm, every small step to reduce demand makes a difference.

You can take your productivity and stir-fry it.

The human brain is the most complex known thing in the universe, and this week millions of those biological powerhouses were distracted from whatever they do best by the complexity of living in a world of Green witchcraft trying to make the weather perfect next century. The productivity loss might have been modest this time, but the long term trend is a slow motion trainwreck.  The more weather dependent generators we have, the more time we waste thinking about electricity. Should we cook dinner for 10pm? The kids will be hungry.

Killer electricity prices came anyway —  $17,500 a MWh for a whole hour

All the effort stopped the blackouts, but they didn’t stop the bank raid. Wholesale electricity prices hit the price cap Tuesday and Wednesday.

Despite all the solar power Australians are swimming in, the bonfire started at 2.30pm and lasted a full sizzling hour. Even though many prices in the wholesale market are hedged, that square wave on an 11 gigawatt grid is a $200 million dollar price signal.  The people writing those futures contracts for next year got the message they will have to raise their forward contracts. The price spikes we see today turn up in our electricity bills sometime down the track.

Say what?  You were surprised by 38 degrees in Sydney in November?

Summer came early, say all the people looking for something to blame. On Wednesday the temperature reached 38°C at Sydney airport.  Barely five years ago in 2019 there were nine days that November above 30°C. Thirty percent of the whole month was above 30.

It hit 40°C at Sydney airport on November in 2006. There were six days that month over 30C. Somehow, with barely any renewables and no batteries at all, the lights stayed on thanks to coal power. Paul McArdle noted at the time that during the 40°C heat, the whole national grid used 29GW of electricity but there was 6GW of surplus power in reserve and ready to go. When electricity was cheap, and no had to hide behind the blinds or cook dinner after 9pm, the coal fired grid had a 21% reserve plant margin.

If renewables fail we should do more renewables:

Experts divided on state’s energy woes following blackout fears

By Alex Dimitriadi and Robert White, The Australian

Mr Bowen blamed volatility in the electricity grid on coal-fired power stations, saying on Thursday that they were its “biggest threat”, spruiking a second-term Labor government’s plan to ­prioritise renewables and underpinned by gas.

“The least reliable part of our energy grid is coal-fired power,” he said. “There hasn’t been a day in the last 18 months when we haven’t had a breakdown in a coal-fired power station.

Someone needs to tell our Minister of Energy that there hasn’t been a day in the last 18 months when solar didn’t fail.

There was not a single day we could make the wind blow at 6pm on command like we do every day for gas.

There was not a single day when retail electricity prices were cheap.

“What the Australian Energy Market Operator told me was that batteries were essential for getting NSW through yesterday.”

What the AEMO should have shown you was this graph done by one man (why can’t the AEMO draw graphs as useful as Andrew Miskelly?).

Where are the batteries?  Not visible. What kept the lights on: black coal, brown coal, and when solar failed as the clouds came over, natural gas arrived to save the day.

 

Generation, november 2024

Seems people at the AEMO were sweating bullets this week, because they are rushing to sign new reserve contracts.

Energy operator expected to seal long-term reserves in bid to prevent more blackout warnings

The Australian Energy Market Operator is expected to imminently agree to new reserve contracts that once agreed will allow the agency extra capacity ahead of a critical summer period.

The contracts, which could be signed within days, come as authorities brace for a summer when demand for electricity will spike, and the industry remains anxious after a precarious day in NSW on Wednesday when the grid struggled to meet demand.

— Colin Packham, The Australian

Why didn’t they see this coming?

 

 

10 out of 10 based on 39 ratings

44 comments to Pull down the blinds. We’re in a Transition to the Third World

  • #
    nb

    Everything you need to know about politics and economics:
    – Prosperity and individual independence bad.
    – Dependent impoverishment good.
    The rest is obscurantism.

    200

  • #
    Ross

    It’s not even summer yet. Talk about how to overcomplicate a once simple, extremely reliable system. Can’t wait for Victoria’s turn at the great electricity roulette wheel because the whole electric grid appears to be now a gamble.

    151

  • #
    Greenas

    Every time I’ve looked at the AEMO dashboard it has been obvious that NSW rarely generates as much power as it consumes , relying on the extension cords into QLD and Victoriastan for the shortfall . Liddell might be handy about now .

    160

  • #
    RickWill

    If you want reliable;e, controlled cost electricity then make your own.

    Blackout Bowen’s energy strategy is rapidly creating a South African style electricity grid to Australia.

    South Africa’s power crisis: going off the grid works for the wealthy – but could deepen injustice for the poor

    https://theconversation.com/south-africas-power-crisis-going-off-the-grid-works-for-the-wealthy-but-could-deepen-injustice-for-the-poor-200288

    80

  • #
    Grant Boydell

    One has to wonder just how far down – temp up – the air conditioners in the NSW & Australian parliaments were adjusted.

    120

    • #
      Greg in NZ

      Surely all that hand-waving by Lydia the Ejected would’ve cooled things down? Except her efforts would be nett zero once she started yelling and foot-stomping, raising the level of carbon pollution to never-before-seen toxic levels.

      Doesn’t your parliament have a day care centre for unruly ill-tempered children?

      150

  • #
    Dennis

    I remember the article here about why Liddell Power Station was worth more to AGL Limited if they shut it down and today I read in The Australian newspaper

    Opposition from AGL has scuppered Delta Electricity’s hopes to guarantee financing into 2025, leaving the future of its Vales Point coal power station up in the air.

    30

    • #
      RexAlan

      Vales Point. The electricity generator is located on the NSW Central Coast, with installed capacity of around 1,320 megawatts.Part of Vales Point’s coal supply is co-fired with biomass to replace a proportion of coal with a renewable fuel.

      If Vales Point goes then we would really be in the poo.

      20

  • #
    David Cole

    Lets do STRESS testing on the grid.Open the switches on the QLD–NSW interconnector and see how NSW and others get by on RENEWABLES.
    QLD HAS ANNOUNCED $1 BILLION to keep our gas and coal fired stations in good operating condition.
    Maybe we will see QLD telling australian business ” come to QLD we have the cheapest electricity in Australia.

    100

  • #
    Dennis

    Dutton Plan

    Australia is facing a huge gap in its ability to provide reliable and affordable electricity.

    In 2023, fossil fuels contributed 63% of Australia’s electricity, and renewables contributed 37%. Solar and wind have been growing and will continue to play an increasingly important role in our energy mix.

    However, there are limitations, because these energy sources only produce electricity when the wind is blowing and the sun is shining. And though we can store some of this energy in batteries or dams, storing very large amounts of electricity is very expensive.

    Australia needs an energy system that supplies the right amount of energy all the time. Failure to do so results in blackouts and higher energy bills.

    Our economy and the essential services we rely on, such as hospitals, telecommunications, water and sewerage and public transport cannot function without electricity that is 100% reliable.

    While the percentage of coal in our energy mix has steadily declined, it continues to provide essential baseload power.

    This means consistent electricity, around the clock – including when the sun doesn’t shine or the wind doesn’t blow.

    Under Labor, 90% of this 24/7 baseload power will be forced out of our energy grid by 2035, without any guarantee of a like-for-like replacement.

    The Australian Energy Market Operator is warning of the increased risk of reliability gaps, meaning blackouts or brownouts. Power bills have increased by up to $1,000 more than the Albanese Government promised.

    Labor’s all-eggs-in-one-basket ‘renewables only’ approach wrongly assumes that one technology class alone can do the job.

    Yet Labor’s renewable energy target – 82% renewables by 2030 – is considerably behind schedule. Labor’s climate target of 43% emissions reduction by 2030 has become unachievable.

    A plan is needed to reduce power prices and secure clean, cheap and consistent energy for Australians.

    150

  • #
    Ed Zuiderwijk

    If ablutions don’t appear to work, more blood lettings are called for. Welcome to the Dark Ages.

    60

  • #
    Mike Jonas

    Coal has been an absolute disaster. 12 coal fired power stations have failed completely in the last decade or so and have failed to re-start. There was a major design fault common to all of them – they had no protection from explosives. When our governments blew them up, they failed. Yes, coal really has let us down.

    350

  • #
    markx

    There’s only one good thing coming from this: the general public is finally seeing all the lies exposed.
    It is becoming crystal clear that Bowen’s mantras are based on his faith in Joseph Goebbels’ principle:

    The BIG LIE by Joseph Goebbels
    “If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State.”

    http://proctors.com.au/mrhomepage.nsf/0d6f50f1d7b71ca7482582240033242e/4d1359098409497748258337002d599d!OpenDocument

    81

    • #
      GlenM

      I think it will take some time, People are dopey and apathetic and will believe the nonsense of dirty unreliable coal. Everyone thinks they will save the planet with solar and wind. I hear this all the time.

      90

  • #
    david

    I find it hard to contemplate how far this country has fallen since the late 70’s.
    Unfortunately Dutton refuses to take that last step on many issues such as energy and climate. If you truly believe in your policies you don’t need to “read the script” as he does in Parliament.

    80

    • #
      RickWill

      I believe Australia improve up to the end of last century.

      The economic situation is really reflected in the cost of electricity.
      https://www.energymatters.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/electricity-price-rises.png

      It was Hawk/Keating era changes that improved industrial productivity and then the premiers, notably Kennett, privatised the state run electricity monopolies. It was all going well until Howard introduced the RET (renewable energy theft) scheme.

      Since the early 00s, productivity in Australia has been sliding but the impact has been dulled by China’s dramatic improvement in productivity. Australia has fared better than most through supplying basic commodities in large volume to China in return for their manufactured goods.

      00

  • #
    Ross

    Having been through this already in Victoria (January 2019), this is the Labor governments playbook. Whatsherface Sharpe has probably already rung the Victorian Energy nincompoop (Lily d Ambrosio) for some guidelines. Lily would have advised her to totally demonise coal. Portray coal as being evil, totally unreliable and old fashioned. Ridicule it until the cows come home. The media and the people dont know otherwise. They’ve never heard of High Efficiency Coal or the fact the most Asian nations are using the latest tech in their coal burners. Plus, of course , coal is the great demon climate change baddie. There’s that. The NSW government will trot out all the usual talking points based on BS and give the perception they’re the truth tellers, it will be like COVID all over again.

    120

  • #
    Bruce

    Go long on candles, firewood and non-perishable foodstuffs. (See also: water purification / storage. and “long-life pharmaceuticals / medical supplies.))

    How to best keep such thing out of the hands of officials (and “freelancers” hunting down “hoarders is up to your conscience.

    20

  • #

    Happy Friday to you all………………….The Real Cost of Net Zero………….

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YbxpieEQ7bc

    20

  • #
    David Maddison

    Presumably these electricity shortages have happened after the few remaining industrial users have been load shed and paid a lot of taxpayer money to turn off their loads (e.g. aluminium smelters).

    I think it’s good news. It might cause the Sheeple to wake up.

    Unfortunately the alternative NSW State and Federal government, the fake conservative Liberal Party are still true believers in the anthropogenic global warming fraud and are also responsible for most of the “renewables” madness we now have.

    Australia would suffer regular blackouts if it were not for the fact that large industrial users are forced to turn off at great expense to the taxpayer when the wind and sun stop shining.

    We get regular load shedding, just like here in Nepal, but it is invisible to most users, therefore people don’t think Australia has many characteristics of a Third World country.

    60

    • #
      TdeF

      How are you writing so much on 300bps? Or is Nepal using Elon Musk’s satellites?

      20

      • #
        David Maddison

        I have been writing when I stop walking and have morning and afternoon tea breaks, lunch or stay overnight at a guest house. About half the guest houses have Intermittent workable WiFi that often works slowly but is OK for text. For those that have internet-connected WiFi, the connection stops operating at about 9pm when the owners either turn it off to save electricity or the solar power goes flat or there is load shedding (if grid electricity is available) or the solar-powered cell phone towers go flat.

        I am now back in Kathmandu and staying in a good hotel in Thamel, Kathmandu. It appears to have 24/7 electricity and hot water which is highly unusual. It either has its own generator or batteries or the Government makes sure the tourists have electricity 24/7 in tourist hotspots like the Thamel area.

        Elon is trying to establish Starlink and it’s subject to talks. Things happen slowly, if at all, here. It has been unavailable because the Government requires any foreign venture to have 20% local equity.

        On the trail, electricity and internet are so unreliable that you have to use them when and if they become available so you make sure to charge your devices and use the internet the moment they work (if they do).

        There is no low cost roaming arrangement between any Australian carrier and any Nepali carrier so no $5 or $10 per day roaming for calls and data. I didn’t buy a local SIM card but I might next time.

        00

  • #

    I give you a turkey who should be roasted immediately before Christmas. Bonehead Blackout Bowen.

    20

  • #

    I find it hilarious that overnight there are so many buildings with the lights on in the Sydney CBD and there is no one in them.

    The NSW State Parliament Building has the lights on as well. And it still has a tin roof with no insulation from the daytime heat. Do they turn down the Air Conditioning when all those ‘Pollies’ are all letting out hot air and the heat comes down through the roof?

    NO. And I will not until they build HELE Coal Fired Power Stations and to once more provide affordable, reliable electricity.

    All that Bonehead Blackout Bowen is doing is giving us ELECTRICKERY…………………

    50

  • #
    TdeF

    We are in a new world where the extreme left politicians simply deny reality. They openly lie. With a smile and sincerely, even passionately.

    According to the US democrats, the border is fine. Harris/Biden/Walz all say so.

    According to Starmer, the riots against uncontrolled mass migration was hate speech. And needs disinformation/misinformation laws and police prosecution to stop dangerou free speech.

    And in Australia, there is no problem at all. Labor is fixing everything. The Voice is going ahead as fast as possible, despite overwhelming rejection by the entire country.

    “Anthony Albanese spruiked Labor’s success in ‘delivering our agenda’ and said his government was on track to make a difference on
    a) cost of living,
    b) housing,
    and
    c) productivity.”

    from what I can see, that is the exact reverse of the truth.

    And it’s entirely their fault and explicit intention, to wreck the joint. On orders of China who believe and ‘free and fair’ trade, as long as we stop making things and do not defend ourselves and ask no questions about the Wuhan Flu. You just have to love the happy faces on Xi, Albanese and Starmer. Happy. Happy. Communists.

    60

    • #

      Guv’ment Misinformation and Disinformation is alive and well.

      Now, are you better off now than you were in May 2022? Upgrade Albo and all the other Marxists are. But you, the humble voter. Are You?

      50

      • #
        TdeF

        And the CO2 tax has just begun to bite and manufacturing companies are closing, like Australia’s largest plastics manufacturer with 800 jobs last year. And that is just the first 5% of the 35%. All borderline companies will close. Or pass on the costs.

        Can you imagine a 35% tax on fuel for aviation? All airlines.
        Or 35% on all transport? Trucks for food, buses, the Trans Tasman Ferry is an explicit victim being among the ‘biggest polluters’.

        Even sewage and burial are subject to this appalling money grab. So eat less and don’t die. You can’t afford it.

        And the papers say nothing. Plus likely the money goes to China and their friends. To grow trees? Australian Carbon Certificates.

        The rape of Australia by President Xi’s Labor is in full swing.

        30

        • #
          TdeF

          Of course everyone knows about the insidious 2011 Australian Carbon Credits scheme

          COP and the Bankers are budgeting world wide for hundreds of billions of dollars. To save the planet of course.

          You must know all about this. It’s all law in Australia.

          Meanwhile all governments since Howard in 2001 are saying “there will be no Carbon Tax in a government I lead”. Except this isn’t a tax, which governments can raise and for which they are accountable, it’s legislated and illegal mandated and enforce Government theft! For which government is NOT accountable.

          20

  • #
    Tony Tea

    Why didn’t they see this coming?

    They did see it coming. But they spent all the time between seeing it and it happening, drawing up a list of people to blame.

    20

  • #

    Will the last one leaving the building please switch off the lights.

    20

  • #
    Mark Jones

    Over this! This is ENRON all over again. Create scarcity and ream the market. Quickest way to reliability is to force all renewables to bid 30 minutes into the future and guarantee that supply. I can guarantee the ENTIRE renewable network will meltdown and then shut down for good until THEY pay for their own “firming”. Works in the NT so why not through the east coast grid. Its not too late to go back to a stable hydrocarbon fueled baseload. Plan now for replacement by Nuclear Power.

    20

  • #
    Mike Borgelt

    Australia has been a Third World country masquerading as First world for some time now. Just look at the state of our roads, medical and education systems along with the electricity grid.
    Third World services, First World taxes.

    10

  • #
    Ronin

    At 1pm Wednesday the 28th, NSW demand was 11549 mw, but undispatchable unreliables only provided 5547 mw, in spite of all the urging and cajoling.

    Third world, here we come.

    10

  • #
    melbourne+resident

    It is really easy to blame coal for blackouts. Being a true baseload power source it is not quick to power up the generators – so there is that intervening period when they are either ticking over or cold. Then if you own and operate coal fired power stations you would be mad to spend money on maintenance as you are going to be forcibly switched off or blown up (AKA Hazelwood). So they break down due to lack of maintenance – there you are – I told you coal was unable to be reliable – then of course they are the source of the “trains of death” spewing deadly “carbon” everywhere as you transport it to the coast for export to where China will continue to burn it without hindrance until 2060! Meanwhile all our industry dies and eventually China will invade and there is nothing we will be able to do to stop it as we have no subs, no tanks, no drones, and no army to speak of. And who would be the modern day Quislings that would welcome them in? try Albo, Dan, Bowen etc

    10

  • #
    Ronin

    I listened to Leith Van Onselen saying Australia should be the richest country in the world, if we charged for our resources like Quatar and Norway instead of almost giving them away, we have everything the world needs apart from crude oil.
    The LNG deal is a shining example that our leaders don’t have a clue what they are doing.

    00

  • #
    STJOHNOFGRAFTON

    Hopefully Australia’s transition to third world status will be halted early 2025 by the fall of the Socialist Albanese government. Assuming the Coalition wins comfortably in the 2025 Federal election what are they going to do with the already installed and partly installed wind towers, parallel power grid, solar farms and battery farms? Nuclear will be able to use the original grid fed by existing coal and gas-fired generator sites which means that the Socialist Albanese government’s boondoggle renewables plant and existing infrastructure will be a useless money gobbling eyesore on sea and land. Some of this waste will be recyclable but much of it will gobble up yet more money in disposing of this intractable waste.

    00

  • #
    David Maddison

    Surely some legal action can be taken against those politicians and public serpents who promote the obvious lie that wind and solar are the cheapest possible form of electricity production?

    It’s obviously untrue because the more wind and solar we get the more expensive electricity becomes. Australia used to have among the world’s cheapest electricity, now it’s among the most expensive.

    No wonder they exempted themselves from the censorship/misinformation bill.

    00

  • #
    Keith Bates

    I get angry when Bowen blames the unreliable coal plants. Reality is that there has been no incentive to invest in either new coal fired generators or even in maintaining what we have for the last 20 years. Remove the subsidies for wind and solar and coal would be able to be reliable.

    10

  • #
    David Maddison

    I can see no obvious low-harm exit strategy from Australia’s wind and solar madness.

    Few other countries are so fanatically committed to it.

    If we exit:

    1) huge compensation will be payable to the subsidy harvesters.

    2) the government told retirement (superannuation) funds that wind and solar was “the future” and encouraged them to invest in them. Obviously the funds didn’t do due diligence to discover that the only purpose of wind and solar is to harvest subsidies and they had no long-term viability. If we exit retirees will suffer.

    3) If we don’t exit the economy will become totally destroyed. Australia will still do nothing even as the United States under TRUMP starts to become prosperous again under TRUMP’s pro-energy policies

    4) No politician or senior public serpents will admit to their lies and errors, like with covid they will say “we will following best available advice”. But that itself is a lie. All the information about the uselessness of wind and solar have been available for decades and on this blog.

    The Government, the senior public serpents and the selfish subsidy harvesters have destroyed the country. We have no TRUMP. The damage done to Australia is so severe that there is no way out and Australia will be relegated to Second World status, kept afloat only by sales of minerals (including coal, gas and uranium which we are not allowed to use ourselves).

    00

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